WAS @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
14
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
WAS26%14
MIN74%21
21
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

WAS
MIN
26% Win Probability 74%
251 Total Yards 280
162 Passing Yards 188
90 Rushing Yards 92
2.7 Sacks 3.3
0.9 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels185 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt41 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.8 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Antonio Williams2.5 rec, 31 yds
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray200 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones49 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison2.9 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Vikings by 6.4

Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 21-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dallas Turner (Vikings) vs Josh Conerly Jr. (Commanders) - winner: Dallas Turner, winning 55% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 28 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 51% of reps for 6.7 sacks a game, with Dallas Turner (3.5 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Vikings' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 26.4 pressures a game (Odafe Oweh (2.7 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.5 catches for 50 yds a game, open 57% of the time.
  • Terry McLaurin is the go-to for the Commanders, separating on 39% of routes for 28 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 14 carries for 49 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12 carries, 41 yds a game (3.4 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

MIN by 6.4 (74% to win) Projected total 35 pts Kyler Murray ~200 pass yds (250+ 18%) Aaron Jones ~49 rush yds (70+ 8%) Justin Jefferson ~61 rec yds, 4.4 rec (70+ 38%)