WAS @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
WAS Commanders
18
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS48%18
MIN52%19
19
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
MARKET MIN -2.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
MIN
48% Win Probability 52%
272 Total Yards 300
175 Passing Yards 204
97 Rushing Yards 96
3.2 Sacks 2.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels192 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Luke McCaffrey2.3 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray223 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.2 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Vikings by 0.8

Vikings are the pick here, favoured by 0.8 and winning 52% of 50 sims (projected 19-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Vikings — a 49% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 22.2 pressures a game, with Dallas Turner (2.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.2 sacks a game (Odafe Oweh (3.3 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Justin Jefferson is the go-to for the Vikings, separating on 62% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 4.6 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 54% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Sonny Styles (Commanders), who yields separation on 44% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 45 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • The Commanders lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 12 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineMIN -0.8
Market lineMIN -2.5
Sim total37
Market total46.5
MIN by 0.8 (52% to win) Projected total 37 pts Kyler Murray ~223 pass yds (250+ 30%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~54 rush yds (70+ 22%) Justin Jefferson ~60 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 28%)