WAS @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
15
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS14%15
PHI86%29
29
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PHI -4.5 +9.1 pts
MARKET PHI -4.5 · O/U 47

Projected Team Stats

WAS
PHI
14% Win Probability 86%
235 Total Yards 404
139 Passing Yards 240
97 Rushing Yards 164
2.2 Sacks 2.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels159 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Luke McCaffrey2.2 rec, 29 yds
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts226 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Makai Lemon5.2 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.5 TD

Eagles by 13.6

Run it 50 times and Eagles win 86% of them, by 13.6 on average (29-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.3 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Makai Lemon, open on 63% of routes for 5.6/7.0, 59 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.7 sacks a game — Jonathan Greenard (2.5 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the Commanders win just 49% of reps for 4.2 sacks a game, with Odafe Oweh (2.6 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles' aerial attack runs through Makai Lemon (59 yds a game, open on 63% of routes).
  • Terry McLaurin should find soft spots all day, open 45% of the time for 33 yds a game.
  • Zack Baun (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 32% of his coverage snaps with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles lean on Saquon Barkley, 13 carries for 70 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 13 carries, 51 yds a game (3.9 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -13.6
Market linePHI -4.5
Sim total44
Market total47
PHI by 13.6 (86% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jalen Hurts ~226 pass yds (250+ 32%) Saquon Barkley ~70 rush yds (70+ 46%) Makai Lemon ~77 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 50%)