WAS @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
WAS Commanders
19
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS36%19
SF64%25
25
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
MARKET SF -5.5 · O/U 50.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
SF
36% Win Probability 64%
289 Total Yards 402
188 Passing Yards 272
100 Rushing Yards 130
3.0 Sacks 2.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels206 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luke McCaffrey3.0 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey78 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Mike Evans5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

49ers by 6.5

The sim sides with 49ers: a 6.5-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Laremy Tunsil (Commanders) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Christian McCaffrey, 4.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), with Nick Bosa (2.3 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 51% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 28.9 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (2.7 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the 49ers to feed Mike Evans: 6.3 catches for 57 yds a game, open 55% of the time.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 4.9 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 59% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Fred Warner (49ers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey sets the tempo for the 49ers — 78 yds a game on the ground at 4.6 a carry, finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 14 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -6.5
Market lineSF -5.5
Sim total44
Market total50.5
SF by 6.5 (64% to win) Projected total 44 pts Brock Purdy ~272 pass yds (250+ 68%) Christian McCaffrey ~78 rush yds (70+ 54%) Mike Evans ~72 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 46%)