WAS @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
WAS Commanders
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS54%22
TEN46%22
22
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
MARKET WAS -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
TEN
54% Win Probability 46%
303 Total Yards 330
191 Passing Yards 239
112 Rushing Yards 91
3.3 Sacks 2.2
1.0 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels204 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt57 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.3 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.0 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward251 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard45 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.3 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD

Commanders by 0.2

Run it 50 times and Commanders win 54% of them, by 0.2 on average (22-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Carnell Tate, open on 63% of routes for 5.7/7.7, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 51% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 33.0 pressures a game, led by Odafe Oweh (3.7 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game).
  • The Commanders' line should hold up: the Titans win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game (John Franklin-Myers (2.0 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Commanders to feed Terry McLaurin: 4.6 catches for 47 yds a game, open 54% of the time.
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 5.7 catches and 57 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
On the Ground
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the workhorse for the Commanders, churning 57 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 45 yds a game at 4.4 a carry for the Titans, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineWAS -0.2
Market lineWAS -1.5
Sim total45
Market total46.5
WAS by 0.2 (54% to win) Projected total 45 pts Cam Ward ~251 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~57 rush yds (70+ 28%) Carnell Tate ~70 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 38%)