Odds on where Ty Simpson will Land

That’s Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, Simpson’s consensus ranking on big boards across NFL Draft publications is 32nd, which places him solidly on the line between the first and second round. Simpson’s draft position is especially interesting because QB-needy teams will always draft a passer earlier than expected if they think he’s a fit; on the other hand, Simpson’s unique career arc could cause teams to avoid reaching for him.

Today, let’s take a look at some of the top football sportsbooks online and see what kind of odds are being placed on Ty Simpon’s landing position. Spoiler alert: We’ve found some valuable options.

A Brief History of Ty Simpson’s Playing Career

If you’re not familiar with Ty Simpson’s history at Alabama, let’s take a quick look at his road to the draft. Simpson was a five-star recruit out of Westfield High School in Martin, TN, and committed to play at Alabama, where he was a freshman in 2022. He served as the Crimson Tide’s third quarterback behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe in his first year, then backed up Milroe in ‘23 and ‘24, throwing just 50 passes total in his first three years at Alabama.

As a senior in 2025, Simpson finally got the starting job under center for Kalen DeBoer’s team, and he absolutely exploded out of the gate. In Alabama’s first nine games, Simpson threw for 2,461 yards with 21 touchdowns and just one interception, leading the Crimson Tide to an 8-1 record.

From there, though, things got a bit rocky.

Simpson finished the season with seven touchdowns and four picks in six games, throwing for 1,106 yards. Alabama went 3-3 in those games, which included a 38-3 loss in the Rose Bowl to the eventual national champion Indiana Hoosiers. Simpson also suffered a cracked rib against Indiana, but has since healed from the injury.

So, which QB will an NFL team get in Simpson: the ultra-efficient passer who makes big plays and few mistakes, or a streaky passer who has hot and cold stretches throughout the season? These are the questions that make Simpson’s draft spot so unpredictable, giving sports bettors a chance to find value on the team who selects him.

Breaking Down the Odds of Ty Simpson’s Landing Spot

The best sportsbooks online offering markets on Simpson’s landing spot in the NFL Draft are Fanatics Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bet365. While most US sportsbooks allow bettors to place a wager on the first and second pick of the draft, not every betting app gives users a chance to bet on a player’s landing spot.

Here are the top five odds for Simpson’s future NFL team on those three sportsbooks:

Fanatics Sportsbook

Cardinals: +200

Jets: +250

Rams: +350

Steelers: +350

Browns: +900

DraftKings Sportsbook

Cardinals: +190

Jets: +225

Steelers: +300

Rams: +350

Browns: +600

Bet365

Jets: +250

Steelers: +350

Cardinals: +550

Dolphins: +550

Rams: +600

The longer the odds, the more you can win. Conversely, longer odds also mean you can earn a notable sum without having to risk a lot of money. So if we’re looking to place a bet on Ty Simpson’s landing spot, we’re going to look for a team that makes sense, but also has long odds.

Across these three sportsbooks, it’s clear that there’s not a consensus about where Simpson will end up — not even close. While the Cardinals and Jets appear to have an edge based on betting odds, the NFL Mock Draft Database has the Steelers as the team who most frequently takes Simpson in mock drafts, but at a measly 16% of the time.

So of the teams most likely to draft Simpson based on projections, which team has the best fit, and whose draft position puts them in a good spot to take him?

Analyzing Simpson’s Most Likely Landing Spots

The New York Jets are in trouble, but you already knew that. After the Aaron Rodgers experiment went off the rails, the Justin Fields experiment didn’t go much better. After for trading veteran stop-gab Geno Smith, they also have undrafted QB Brady Cook on their roster along with former third-round pick Hendon Hooker, who they signed to their practice squad in December. This is not a team with a QB of the future on their roster, and they’d love to draft him in April. But for a team desperate to turn things around, can they really bank on Simpson being that guy? New York is likely poised to spend their draft capital on a future star a year from now.

The Steelers are still awaiting word from Aaron Rodgers as to whether or not he’ll play in 2026, but that doesn’t exactly change their draft strategy. Pittsburgh chose Will Howard in the 2025 draft, and while he was a sixth-round pick, coaches have been raving about Howard’s potential, as has Rodgers himself. Pittsburgh would welcome Rodgers back with open arms, but if he doesn’t come back, it’s Howard’s job to lose, with Mason Rudolph serving as a solid QB2. Would the Steelers really use a late first-round pick or trade up for Simpson when they want to see what they have in Will Howard?

The Browns invited Simpson for a meeting, and new head coach Todd Monken has known Simpson’s father for years. But you may recall Cleveland drafted not one but two QBs a year ago, and Shadeur Sanders showed well enough to warrant starting duties in 2026.

The Rams are an interesting case, taking the identity of a team who needs to start thinking about life after Matthew Stafford. Again, if you’re the Rams, looking to win one more Super Bowl with Stafford, do you risk using your first-round pick on Simpson rather than a year-one contributor?

That brings us to the Arizona Cardinals. After cutting Kyler Murray, they’re left with veteran Jacoby Brissett under center, but they too must find their quarterback of the future soon. The backup to Brissett right now? That’d be Kedon Slovis, the undrafted QB out of BYU. The Cardinals need to draft a quarterback, and they’re in a great position to make Ty Simpson that player.

Arizona drafts third overall, and they won’t take Simpson third. They will, however, take him third in the second round, or more likely, trade up into the back end of the first round. That’s exactly what one recent ESPN mock draft predicted, with the Cardinals trading for the 28th overall pick from the Texans.

Getting Value on the Cardinals to Draft Ty Simpson

Perhaps the most head-scratching observation we could make when looking at the odds for Simpson’s landing spot is the disparity between odds for the Cardinals. They’re favored on Fanatics and DraftKings, at +200 and +190, respectively. But on Bet365, Arizona has +550 odds to be the team who drafts Simpson.

What does that tell us? If nothing else, it means that’s where bettors can find value on a Ty Simpson projection. Bet365 has longer odds for a few teams, but the juice they’re putting on Arizona to take Simpson is worth taking a flier on, in our view. At +550, a $10 bet could return $55 if the bet hits.

No matter where you think Simpson will land, he’s got a ton of value on Bet365 to go to Arizona. And if he does, we’ll join Cardinals fans in being pretty excited about it.