Jacksonville Is the Favorite Now. Minnesota and San Francisco Are Next, and the Model Finally Knows Who Is Hurt.

Three weeks, a trade deadline and a model that now counts injury return dates have moved the title race to Jacksonville, Minnesota and San Francisco.

Three weeks ago Detroit was the favorite at 24.5 percent and Jacksonville was fourth at 8.5. Since then the Lions have won three straight and their title chance has fallen to five percent, and the Jaguars have won two by a combined 75-17 and climbed to 30.5. Minnesota traded for Kirk Cousins and went from half a percent to 17.5. San Francisco went from three and a half to 13.5. Kansas City lost twice and slid from 17.5 to 12.

Some of that is football and some of it is the model. This is the first run on a version we rebuilt over the past week. Injured players now miss games up to their expected return date and come back into their jobs when they return, where before a player on injured reserve vanished for the season and anyone else was treated as healthy. Rookies keep their college record until they have built an NFL one. Players traded mid-season are rated on their own production. And defenses are allowed to differ from each other as much as real defenses do, which is the change that cost Detroit most. The full list, and the reasons, are on the season projection page.

The 137 games that have been played are in the books, one of them a tie. The rest of Week 10, the eight weeks after it and the postseason were played out two hundred times with every player's season to date seeded into his line and the injury list as it stood on Friday morning. What came back is below.

The scorecard

Our matchup projections picked a favorite in 42 of the 44 games from Week 7 through Thursday night (two were exact coin flips, and Chicago and Buffalo won them) and got 20 right. That is the worst stretch of the season. Week 7 went 5 for 14, Week 8 went 7 for 14, Week 9 went 8 for 13, and Thursday's Giants pick lost. Six favorites at 70 percent or better lost: Houston at 82 percent at home against the Giants, Carolina at 80 percent at home against Tampa Bay, who won 43-13, Kansas City at 80 percent in Seattle, the Jets at 78 percent at home against Miami, Dallas at 72 percent at home against Arizona and Kansas City at 72 percent in Denver. Those odds came from the model as it stood before this week's changes. We are not claiming the new version would have called them. It gets graded on the games it picks from here, starting this Sunday.

Jacksonville is the favorite on defense

The Jaguars beat Indianapolis 42-7 and won in Baltimore 33-10, are 6-2, and came out of the re-run at 13.7 wins with a 100 percent playoff chance and a 30.5 percent title chance, the largest in football by 13 points. They have allowed 121 points in eight games and project to allow 248 for the season, 40 fewer than anyone else. That number moved more than any other this week: three weeks ago the model had the Jaguars allowing 294, and under the new defensive weighting the best defense in football now gets the credit for being the best. Trevor Lawrence has 18 touchdowns and four interceptions at a 111.7 rating and projects for 37 and nine. Tennessee on the road this week is the most lopsided game on the slate outside Los Angeles, and the model gives Jacksonville 90 percent.

Minnesota went and got a quarterback

The Vikings beat Indianapolis 16-10, lost 19-15 in Detroit and lost 23-6 at home to Buffalo, then traded a 2027 third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins on Tuesday. They are 6-2 and project for 12.3 wins, a 98 percent playoff chance and a 17.5 percent title chance, up from 10.3 wins and half a percent. The defense is the foundation: 116 points allowed in eight games and 288 projected, second only to Jacksonville. The offense was the problem, with Kyler Murray at an 86.6 rating in six starts, and Murray is now doubtful with a hamstring. Cousins had 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions in nine starts for the Raiders and the model rates Minnesota on him. Green Bay on the road this week is the first test, and the model gives the Vikings 54 percent.

San Francisco has the NFC's best projection

The 49ers lost 29-20 in Atlanta as a 52 percent favorite, then beat the Raiders 38-17, and at 7-1 they project for 13.5 wins, the most in the NFC, with a 98.5 percent playoff chance and a 13.5 percent title chance. Brock Purdy is at a 109.8 rating with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions and has been sacked eight times in eight games. Christian McCaffrey projects for 1,246 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. The injury list is long but shallow: every 49ers starter on it is questionable for Sunday rather than out, and the players who are gone for the year are backups. Dallas on the road this week is 74 percent.

Where the arguments moved

Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10 and won 23-6 in Minnesota, is 7-1, and has gone from 10.2 wins to 13 with a 100 percent playoff chance. The Bills project for 507 points, the most in the league, but only a four percent title chance, which is the model saying the AFC road goes through Jacksonville. Kansas City lost 20-3 in Seattle as an 80 percent favorite and 28-24 in Denver, beat the Jets, and slid from 13.4 wins to 12.6. Walker has 872 rushing yards and projects for 1,805.

Cincinnati won 35-13 in Baltimore, 43-36 against Tennessee and 34-17 in Atlanta, is 6-2, and climbed from 9.9 wins to 12. Joe Burrow has 23 touchdowns and six interceptions at a 114.8 rating, the best in football, and projects for 46 touchdowns. Pittsburgh is 6-2 and plays in Cincinnati on Sunday night at 40 percent. The Steelers and project for 11.1 wins and an 84 percent playoff chance, but did not win the title in any of the 200 seasons. Denver won all three of its games, including 28-24 over Kansas City, is 7-2, and moved from 8.9 wins to 10.8 and an 81 percent playoff chance.

The Giants won in Houston as an 18 percent underdog and in Philadelphia, lost to Washington on Thursday night, and at 5-3-1 have gone from 6.3 wins to 9.2 and a 79 percent playoff chance, the biggest climb of the three weeks. Chicago is 7-2 after beating New England, winning in Seattle and edging Tampa Bay, and the model still has the Bears at 9.7 wins and a 38 percent playoff chance. That is the sharpest disagreement between a record and a projection anywhere in the league, and the reason is the division: Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay all project higher. Green Bay is 6-3, projects for 11.2 wins, and gets Josh Jacobs back from finger surgery after November 25. Seattle won two of three, including 20-3 over Kansas City, and climbed from 7.2 wins to 9.1, but Sam Darnold is out with a quadriceps injury until the end of the month.

Going the other way, Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, Buffalo and Jacksonville by a combined 104-33, is 4-5, and has Lamar Jackson on injured reserve after thumb surgery until mid-December. The Ravens fell from 10.4 wins to 7.1 and from a 73 percent playoff chance to two, the largest drop of the three weeks. Philadelphia lost three more, is 2-7, and projects for 3.8 wins with Jalen Hurts out for the season. Carolina lost 43-13 at home to Tampa Bay, then to Green Bay and Denver, and fell from 10.5 wins to 8.3. Atlanta beat the 49ers and then scored 17 points in two games, falling from 8.8 wins to 6.3. The Jets are 2-7 and down from 8.3 wins to 5.5. Las Vegas, with Fernando Mendoza now starting, projects for 7.5 wins and a 10.5 percent playoff chance.

The Rams, in full

Three weeks ago the model expected the Rams to win their next four. They have won three of them: 35-21 in Las Vegas, 24-9 against the Chargers and 20-13 in Washington. At 5-4 they project for 10 wins, the same as in October, but their playoff chance has fallen from 72 percent to 64.5 and their title chance from 8.5 to 3.5. Winning did not cost them anything. The injury model did. Puka Nacua is on injured reserve with a knee sprain until the final three weeks of the season and now projects for 981 yards, down from 1,544. Davante Adams is due back after November 25. Kobie Turner returns the same week and Poona Ford is out for the year. Matthew Stafford has 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions at a 90.6 rating and projects for 29 and 16. The model gives the Rams 96 percent in Arizona on Sunday. It also gave them 98 percent at home against Arizona in October.

The quarterback list

Kirk Cousins was traded from Las Vegas to Minnesota on Tuesday, and Fernando Mendoza is now the Raiders' starter. Kyler Murray is doubtful with a hamstring. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve after thumb surgery and is not expected back before mid-December; Tyler Huntley is also on injured reserve, and Jacoby Brissett is starting in Baltimore at a 79.7 rating. Jalen Hurts is out for the season. Gardner Minshew is out for the season with an elbow injury and rookie Carson Beck starts in Arizona. Malik Willis is on injured reserve until mid-December. Jaxson Dart is on injured reserve with a meniscus injury and J.J. McCarthy is starting for the Giants. Sam Darnold is out until the end of the month.

What did not move

Houston is 3-5 and holds at 9.1 wins, with Will Anderson Jr. at 12 sacks and projected for 21. Pittsburgh holds at eleven. New Orleans is at six, Tennessee at three and a half, and the Chargers, 0-8, are under two. Cleveland is up half a win to 8.5, Washington is up one and a half to 6.8 after Thursday's win, Tampa Bay has climbed from 4.4 to seven, and Miami won its first game, in New York, and is at 3.8.

Go argue with it again

The method is what it was. The model prices the players on the field, what they have actually done, who is actually available and the schedule ahead. What has changed is how well it knows who is available and for how long, and how much it lets one defense differ from another. The result is a league in which Jacksonville is the favorite on the back of the best defense in football, Minnesota bought its way into the race at the deadline, San Francisco has the NFC's best projection, and the Rams are a ten-win team waiting for their two best receivers. If you think the model has overrated a quarterback trade or underrated a 7-2 team in Chicago, Vikings at Packers on Sunday is where you find out.

Start with the full 2026 league projection, standings and odds, then go find out what three weeks did to your team.

All 32 team previews

AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers

NFC East
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New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
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NFC West
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San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks