NFL Draft 2027: What No. 1 Overall Pick Betting Markets Tell Us About the Top of the Order
For most NFL teams, fall tends to be when the focus is on accumulating as many wins as possible. A few will be aiming for the No. 1 seed, while others just hope to reach the playoffs.
But for some, they are already thinking about April and how they can improve the team with the best college football prospects who declare for the NFL Draft.
Performances across the various conferences have caught the eye of fans and teams, and also various sportsbooks. Markets are live for the 2027 Draft, and the one that oddsmakers will adjust throughout the season is who will be taken with the first overall pick. And the current landscape tells fans tracking the market a few things about the potential draft order on April 29, 2027.
Jeremiah Smith is the undisputed favorite
This will come as no surprise to those who have followed college ball in 2026, but Jeremiah Smith is the favorite to be taken off the board first. The Buckeyes receiver is second in the league for touchdowns and receiving yards, but his ability to make the impossible look simple, like his one-handed catch against Maryland, is what’s impressing analysts and sportsbooks alike.
Right now, Smith is averaging 19.1 yards per reception, a workload keeping him the heavy favorite across major operators like DraftKings and FanDuel. Odds vary from book to book, but a DraftKings vs FanDuel comparison covers those differences for bettors tracking Smith’s No. 1 pick favorite status.
No clear QB1?
There’s been a lot of debate about the caliber of quarterbacks in the 2027 Draft Class based on performances. And one thing that stands out in betting markets is the absence of a clear QB1 choice, with Arch Manning and CJ Carr sharing odds of +420.
Although Manning has long been touted to become a starting NFL quarterback, no doubt boosted by his family lineage, his performances in 2026 have left a little to be desired. Five interceptions on the season, including two in the 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, and a completion percentage of just 63% highlight the need for work on the training ground. It’s potential, more than anything, that is keeping him at the top of the sportsbooks’ order.
Carr has looked more impressive from a statistical point of view, marshaling Notre Dame to a 6-0 start with a QBR of 89.0 for the season. That’s platformed him in the betting odds as Manning’s main rival, despite him still being a junior. Should he not declare for the draft, Drew Mestemaker (+500) and Darian Mensah (+950) also have a chance of being the first quarterback off the board.
Could other non-QBs go before Manning, Carr, and company?
Across various big boards, there’s been debate regarding who might be taken following Smith. While a team with a clear need at quarterback could go for Manning, Carr, or potentially someone else, others have looked at pass rushers like Dylan Stewart and Colin Simmons, who tied a program record with five sacks against Tennessee, or cornerback Leonard Moore, as other potential options who could go next.
Yet, according to the No. 1 Overall Pick markets, none seemingly stand a chance of going before a quarterback. The next non-QB after Smith with the highest odds is Simmons, who is priced at +6500. Much will depend on the QB needs of the NFL teams picking first in the draft, but sportsbooks believe that quarterbacks with franchise potential will be in demand in 2027.