The race for the Number 1 overall pick

Three teams remain winless, while several others have already shown serious flaws that could see them finish with the worst record in the NFL and give them the first overall pick.

The Miami Dolphins are currently the clear favorites on prediction markets at 44%, followed by the Tennessee Titans at 24%. The Arizona Cardinals are a distant third at 7%, with the New York Jets at 6%, Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5% each, and the Washington Commanders at 3%.

For anyone considering a prediction market trade, the key is looking beyond the standings. Quarterback play, injuries, schedule difficulty and roster quality can all influence a team's chances of finishing with the NFL's worst record. Here's how the leading candidates stack up and which 2027 draft prospects they could target.

The Miami Dolphins Are the Team to Beat at 44%

Miami is off to an 0-5 start without playing any truly competitive games so far, making them the leading candidate for the No. 1 pick after Week 5. Their latest defeat, a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati, featured several of the problems that could keep them in contention.

The Dolphins are also without running back De'Von Achane, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in Week 3. Backup Ollie Gordon has taken on a larger role, but replacing Achane's production is a significant challenge for an offense that already lacks consistency.

At 44%, Miami is priced as the clear favorite in this market. That doesn't automatically make the Dolphins the best bet, though. A high probability means bettors must consider whether the potential payout justifies the risk. The team's quarterback struggles and injuries are legitimate concerns, but five games are still a small sample, and Miami could improve as the season progresses.

If the Dolphins finish with the first pick, quarterback could be a position to watch. Oregon's Dante Moore has been one of the top prospects in early 2027 rankings, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning is another prominent name. Miami could also choose to build around Willis rather than draft another quarterback. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who ranks second in the nation in receiving yards, would be an intriguing option if he remains highly rated.

The Titans Are the Main Alternative at 24%

Tennessee has the same 0-5 record as Miami, and its latest performance was particularly concerning. The Titans managed just 187 total yards in a 26-3 loss to Houston, while quarterback Cam Ward threw for 170 of them.

Tennessee's struggles extend beyond quarterback play. The offense has failed to sustain drives, the defense has struggled to keep opponents in check, and injuries have affected the secondary. That combination gives the Titans a credible chance of remaining near the bottom of the standings.

The difference between Tennessee and Miami is the market price: the Titans are listed at 24%, 20 percentage points below the Dolphins. Ward was the first overall pick in the 2025 draft, so if Tennessee ends up with the top selection again, it could use it to build around him rather than immediately pursue another quarterback.

Smith would be an appealing potential target if he remains the top-rated prospect. Tennessee could also look to strengthen its defense with a player such as Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who already has 9.5 sacks this season.

The Cardinals Are a Long Shot at 7%

Arizona entered the season among the leading candidates for the top pick, but the Cardinals have one win after five games. Their latest result was a 45-21 loss to Detroit, their fourth consecutive defeat after beginning the season with a win.

The defense has been a major weakness, allowing an average of 37 points per game during that losing streak. Arizona also struggled to sustain drives against Detroit, with five consecutive first-half three-and-outs producing just 12 total yards.

The Cardinals' decision to trade wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston over the weekend added another question mark to the team's direction.

At 7%, Arizona is a much longer shot than Miami or Tennessee. The Cardinals' defensive problems make them worth monitoring, but their one win puts them in a different echelon than the winless teams. Their upcoming matchup against the Rams will be another test in a difficult NFC West.

If Arizona finishes with the first pick, it could target an elite defensive prospect such as Simmons. Smith could also be a possibility if the Cardinals want to replace some of the receiving talent lost in the Harrison trade. Quarterback is another consideration, and Arizona is certainly a candidate to select Moore or Manning.

Other Teams in Contention

The Jets are listed at 6% after improving to 2-3 with a 17-12 win over Cleveland. Geno Smith threw a touchdown to Garrett Wilson, Braelon Allen rushed for 116 yards, and New York's defense recorded eight sacks. That performance makes the Jets less compelling than their earlier struggles suggested, particularly if the defense continues to pressure quarterbacks at that rate.

The Chargers are at 5% after falling to 0-5 in a 23-17 loss to the Broncos. Justin Herbert was sacked five times behind an offensive line featuring four rookie starters, and he lost a fumble and threw an interception. Los Angeles has a talented quarterback and an established head coach in Jim Harbaugh, but its injuries and late-game mistakes are serious concerns that they haven’t yet shown the ability to overcome.

Tampa Bay is also at 5% following a 24-16 victory over Dallas for their first win of the season. Bucky Irving rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns, while rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels threw for 189 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. The win doesn't take the Bucs out of the running for the first pick, but they looked good enough on Thursday to give bettors pause.

For now, Miami and Tennessee are the leading candidates because both remain winless and have struggled to produce consistent offense. The Chargers' offensive-line problems and Arizona's defensive issues make them worth watching, while recent wins have given the Jets and Buccaneers some breathing room.