Bryce Lance WR North Dakota State |
NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
| Jersey: #5 ROLE: Outside X-Receiver | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Last Updated: 03/25/2026 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Draft Year: 2026 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FORTY time: 4.34 seconds (94%*) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Jersey: #5 | |
| ROLE: Outside X-Receiver | |
| Last Updated: 03/25/2026 | |
| Draft Year: 2026 | |
| Forty time: 4.34 seconds (94%*) | |
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SHARE THIS PROFILE:
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| Overall Rating: | 84.7 / 100 | |
|---|---|---|
| Average rating of opposition Defense player has faced | ||
| Defense Rating: |
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66% |
| Click the links below to view how player ranks vs other prospects. | ||
| QB Rating When targeted: | 148.0 | |
| Hands: |
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74% |
| Short Receiving: |
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81% |
| Intermediate Routes: |
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83% |
| Deep Threat: |
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86% |
| Blocking: |
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59% |
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DRAFT PROJECTION:
3rd
Overall Rank:
#84
Position rank:
#17 (WR)
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| College Games: 40 College Snaps: 1373 | ||
247 RATING: 80/100
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| Player Comparison* (Similarity level) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Iosivas - Princeton |
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95% |
| Xavier Hutchinson - Iowa State |
|
82% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. - Ohio State |
|
76% |
Drafted: ROUND: 4 - Pick Number: 136 (NO)
Draft Profile: Bio
Growing up in Marshall, Minnesota, Bryce Lance spent his childhood chasing footballs thrown by his older brother Trey in the backyard, learning the game from a father, Carlton, who played professionally in the CFL. He was a multi-sport star at Marshall High School, setting school records in both receiving yards and interceptions on the football field while also making noise on the basketball court. Recruiting services pegged him as a three-star prospect with an 80/100 rating from 247 Sports, and he followed Trey's footsteps to Fargo, enrolling at North Dakota State in 2021. The last name carried weight in that building, but Bryce was determined to build something of his own.Patience is one way to describe his first three years. Anonymity might be more accurate. Lance redshirted in 2021, played strictly special teams in 2022, and caught a single pass as a sophomore in 2023. Three full seasons, one reception. Then his junior campaign in 2024 detonated like a bomb nobody saw coming. He grabbed 75 balls for 1,071 yards and 17 touchdowns, a scoring total that led every receiver in the FCS and tied the Missouri Valley Football Conference's single-season record. The playoffs only amplified his impact: 25 catches, 375 yards, and seven touchdowns across four postseason games. That semifinal against South Dakota State, where he went for six catches, 125 yards, and three scores, was the kind of performance that forces scouts to open a new file. He capped the year with nine receptions in the national championship win over Montana State and earned First-Team All-MVFC honors as NDSU claimed its tenth title.
Lance returned for his senior season and became the first wide receiver in Bison history to string together consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns, finishing 2025 with 51 catches for 1,079 yards and eight touchdowns. A career-high 159-yard outing against Southeast Missouri State and an 81-yard scoring strike against St. Thomas (tied for ninth longest in program history) highlighted the year, along with a 75-yard rushing touchdown against Southern Illinois that showed his open-field ability. He turned down Big Ten transfer offers and more NIL money to stay in Fargo, a decision that says plenty about his makeup. Off the field, he completed his marketing degree in December 2024 and finished his MBA by December 2025, earning CSC Academic All-America first-team honors and finishing 12th in Walter Payton Award voting. He closed his collegiate career third on NDSU's all-time list with 25 touchdown receptions and eighth with 2,157 receiving yards, and he is widely regarded as the top FCS prospect in this draft class.
Scouting Report: Strengths
- Combine-verified elite athlete who posted a 99 athleticism score and a 9.98 Relative Athletic Score, ranking seventh among all receivers tested at the combine since 1987. This is not a small-school mirage.
- Blazing long speed that showed up as a 4.34 forty with a 1.49-second 10-yard split, fifth and second among all receivers respectively. He can flat out run, and the tape backs it up on those deep balls over the top.
- Explosive lower half is absurd for a 6-3 frame. A 41.5-inch vertical (fourth among combine wideouts) and an 11-foot-1 broad jump (tied for third) mean he plays above the rim and covers ground in a hurry.
- Deep ball tracking ability is as natural as any receiver in this class. He locates the football over his shoulder with ease, adjusts his stride without losing a step, and finishes at the catch point with body control that belies his size.
- Contested catch rate of 62 percent is a real weapon. He attacks 50-50 balls with that length and vertical pop, turning jump balls into mismatches that corners simply cannot win consistently.
- Reliable hands throughout his career. Only two drops on 99 targets as a senior tells you he is locked in when the ball arrives, and there is nothing mechanical or forced about his catching motion.
- Intermediate route work is polished beyond what you typically see from the FCS level. He sinks his hips with balance, snaps off cuts cleanly, and finds the soft spots in zone with a feel that looks instinctive rather than coached.
- Scores touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Twenty-five career scores on 127 receptions, roughly one every five catches, and his body control near the goal line is outstanding. Red zone weapon from day one.
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
- Competition level is the elephant in the room. Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons are impressive anywhere, but the corners he dominated at the FCS level are a different species from NFL defensive backs.
- Release package off the line needs serious work. He got away with raw athleticism against press at the FCS level, but NFL corners will eat him alive if he does not develop hand combatives and counter moves.
- Route tree felt limited on tape. He was at his best on verticals, posts, and intermediate crossers, but the nuance and deception required on option routes and double moves at the next level still needs refinement.
- Blocking effort and technique grade out as merely adequate. For a guy his size, there should be more willingness to sustain contact and finish in the run game if he wants to see early-down snaps.
- Only two truly productive seasons after three years of near-total invisibility. The breakout was dramatic, but the late development timeline raises fair questions about how much ceiling remains and whether the learning curve will steepen against better competition.
Scouting Report: Summary
The Combine changed everything for Bryce Lance. Before Indianapolis, the scouting conversation centered on a productive FCS receiver who might lack the speed to separate at the NFL level. That 4.34 forty, combined with elite explosion numbers across the board, obliterated the biggest question mark on his evaluation. This is not some stiff possession receiver who needs to be schemed open on every snap. Lance tested as one of the most explosive athletes at his position in combine history, and when you pair that kind of verified speed and burst with 6-3 length, a 41.5-inch vertical, and a 62 percent contested catch rate, you are looking at a receiver who can win at all three levels of the field. The physical toolkit is legitimately special.Where he fits best is in an offense that values vertical concepts and play-action shot plays but also runs enough intermediate structure to take advantage of his route feel between the numbers. He is a natural X receiver who can be aligned outside and trusted to win one-on-one, both over the top and at the catch point on contested throws. Red zone usage should be immediate given his scoring history and his ability to high-point throws in tight windows. An Air Coryell system, a Shanahan-style play-action attack, or any offense that creates layered reads and throws to defined spots would get the most out of him. The speed concerns that once suggested he needed to be hidden are gone; he can be featured.
There are still real questions to answer. The FCS competition gap is not nothing, and his release technique against physical press coverage will need development before he can be counted on as a consistent starter. The late bloom is unusual, and some evaluators will fairly wonder whether two big years at a small school translate to sustained NFL production. But the Combine performance, paired with the tape, tells me this is a player who was held back by circumstances and opportunity rather than ability. Lance earned everything the hard way, from one catch through three seasons to back-to-back All-American recognition to a 99th-percentile athletic testing day. The arrow is pointing straight up, and an NFL team that invests in his development is getting a receiver with rare physical gifts, dependable hands, and a competitive streak that shows up when it matters most.
Bryce Lance percentiles vs other Wide Receivers (NFL Combine historically - higher value represents better perfomance)
How other scouting services rate Bryce Lance (Overall Rank)
All Scouts AverageOverall Rank
87.6
All Scouts AveragePosition Rank
21.0
*Percentile Ranking in Player's Position Group (NFL Combine Historical Data): This percentile reflects how a player's specific statistics rank
in comparison to historical performances at the NFL Combine, specifically within their position group. A higher percentile indicates a better performance.
For instance, being in the 90th percentile for a particular stat means the player outperformed 90% of their peers in that category.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.