Five Weeks In: How Our 2027 Top 100 Are Living Up to Their Grades
Jeremiah Smith dominates, Arch Manning struggles behind a leaky line, and Mensah, Umanmielen and Baugh play beyond their current draft grades.
Five weeks is enough tape to start separating the prospects who are playing to their grade from the ones living off last season. Texas sits No. 1 in the AP poll after its bye, Georgia, Notre Dame and Miami are all 5-0 behind them, and Ohio State is back to fifth after a three-week run in which its star receiver put up back-to-back 200-yard games. Underneath the rankings, the top 100 on our board has taken real hits. The No. 2 player is in concussion protocol, the No. 15 player has more suspensions than sacks, two top-30 safeties are hurt, and the No. 33 player has not taken a snap all year. Meanwhile a quarterback sitting 87th had more touchdown passes than incompletions through four games, and an edge rusher at 78 went into Week 5 leading the country in sacks. Here is how the players in our top 100 have performed through Week 5.
Jeremiah Smith Is Still Untouchable at No. 1
There is no debate at the top. Jeremiah Smith caught four touchdowns and topped 200 yards against Illinois, then went to Iowa City, saw high-low brackets on almost every snap, and still finished with 11 catches for 206 yards and two scores in a 31-14 win over the No. 14 Hawkeyes. He is the first Ohio State receiver with consecutive 200-yard games, he passed Chris Olave for the program's career touchdown-catch record, and his 823 receiving yards lead the FBS. The Iowa game was the more revealing of the two. Every catch came through contact, and he won at the stem of routes, at the catch point and, more than in past seasons, after the catch. That is the version NFL defenses will throw at him every Sunday, and he solved it.
His quarterback is doing his part to protect a No. 3 ranking that took heat after the second half in Austin. Julian Sayin has gone over 300 yards in consecutive games, including 20 of 27 for 324 yards and three touchdowns at Iowa, and his season line now reads 72.5 percent completions, 1,530 yards, 13 touchdowns and one interception. The arm-strength questions have not disappeared, but the processing and accuracy that earned him a top-three grade are showing up every week the run game gives him a stable platform. Ohio State's offensive line is in flux, and Austin Siereveld (37) kicked out to tackle at Iowa with the starting right tackle unavailable. He held up, though his body type and footwork still project better at guard. Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (65) set the tone at Iowa with a strip-sack on the opening drive.
The Quarterback Board Is Under Pressure
Three of our top four are quarterbacks, and only one of them had a clean month. Dante Moore (2) bounced back from the Oklahoma State loss with 280 yards and four touchdowns against Portland State, then took a helmet-to-helmet hit while sliding in the second quarter at USC and left the stadium in an ambulance. Scans came back clean and the hit drew a targeting ejection, but he is in concussion protocol with no return date and Oregon hosts UCLA this week. His season sits at 926 yards and nine touchdowns in four games, and the evaluation is now on hold until he is cleared.
Arch Manning (4) is the quarterback whose stock has moved the most since the Ohio State comeback, and not in the right direction. He went 16 of 32 for 161 yards against UTSA, with both touchdowns to Cam Coleman, and then managed 14 of 19 for 201 yards, an interception and no touchdowns at Tennessee, the first time in ten games he failed to throw a scoring pass. He was sacked six times in Knoxville, drew two illegal forward pass penalties, and has now gone down ten times in four games while completing 63.5 percent for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three picks. He opened that game 6 of 6 for 120 yards, so the arm and the accuracy are there in rhythm. The problem is what happens once the first read is gone: he is holding the ball and taking sacks NFL defenses will turn into turnovers. Texas is 4-0 and No. 1, but that is the defense's doing. The Red River game in Dallas this Saturday matters more for Manning than for any player on this board.
The quarterback who has done the most to push his grade up is a long way down the list. Darian Mensah sits 87th on our board, seventh among quarterbacks, and through five games he has completed 112 of 133 passes for 1,438 yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. He completed his first 24 throws at Wake Forest on the way to an ACC-record 35 straight completions, became the first FBS quarterback in at least 30 years with more touchdown passes than incompletions through four games, and then went into Death Valley and beat Clemson 41-13 with a 66-yard touchdown to Cooper Barkate and a 34-yard scoring run. Clemson's head coach said afterwards Mensah might be the first pick in the draft. That is a stretch, but the gap between his tape and his ranking is now the biggest on our board, and the arm-strength questions are the only thing keeping him outside the first round.
CJ Carr (12) has been the most complete passer of the group. He threw three touchdowns and ran for another at Purdue, then went 21 of 29 for 234 yards and four touchdowns at North Carolina with a rushing score on top. The numbers undersell it. His receivers were not separating consistently, and he kept putting the ball on the far shoulder away from coverage, moving the safety with his eyes before the 28-yard post to Jordan Faison and dropping the 12-yard score to Jaden Greathouse into a window over the cornerback. The pre-snap command is NFL-ready right now, and he has thrown one interception all season.
Drew Mestemaker (16) has been better than his mid-first-round grade since the Tulsa opener. He went 20 of 22 for 324 yards and five touchdowns against Murray State, then threw for 389 yards and three scores at West Virginia, 274 of them after halftime, to snap Oklahoma State's long Big 12 losing streak. He leads the Big 12 with 1,271 passing yards, but his five interceptions are a reminder that the streaky stretches have not gone away. His top target, Wyatt Young (53), caught eight passes for 192 yards in Morgantown with three catches of 48 yards or more.
Further down, Josh Hoover (92) has 15 touchdowns and no interceptions for an Indiana team that has now won 21 straight, though a shaky night against Northwestern showed he does not yet attack defenses the way his predecessor did. DJ Lagway (94) came back from his ankle injury and threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-19 rout at Arizona State, but he completed under half his throws in his first two games and accuracy remains the question. Nico Iamaleava (96) has UCLA 4-0 and threw for 276 yards and three scores against Purdue, though most evaluators see a Day 2 developmental quarterback, which is roughly where we have him. Brendan Sorsby (33) has not played. The NCAA ruled him ineligible in May after he admitted to betting on games, including ones involving Indiana while he was on the roster, and his case for any draft slot now rests on interviews and background work rather than tape.
Edge Rushers: Simmons Soars, Stewart Stalls
Colin Simmons (5) produced the single best defensive performance of the season at Tennessee: five sacks to tie the Texas program record, five tackles for loss and a forced fumble on a chase-down of Faizon Brandon. He won with push-pull moves, powered through a tackle, looped from a spy alignment and closed from behind. He played with a large brace on his left arm a week after leaving UTSA in a walking boot, and he has seven and a half sacks in four games. The only mark against the day was a vulgar celebration penalty after a third-down sack that extended a Tennessee drive. One flag is not a pattern, but scouts will want to know whether it becomes one.
The other edge rusher in our top 15 is going the other way. Dylan Stewart (15) missed the first two games with the back injury that has followed him since last season, played 14 snaps and made one tackle in his debut against Mississippi State, and then, on limited snaps against Alabama, drew a roughing-the-passer flag, punched an Alabama tight end and argued with coaches as Shane Beamer tried to address him. The SEC and South Carolina suspended him for the Kentucky game, which the Gamecocks lost in overtime to fall to 0-3 in the league. Beamer has offered no update on his status for Florida. The first step and bend are still elite, but he has one tackle and no sacks this season, and the medical, the effort and now the discipline questions are stacking up. Holding him at 15 depends on what the next seven games look like.
The biggest edge riser is Princewill Umanmielen (78). The Ole Miss transfer led the country with seven sacks through four games and added an eighth on a third-down rush against McNeese, giving him 10 tackles for loss for an LSU front that leads the nation in sacks. A top-50 grade is in play if he keeps it up through the SEC schedule. Damon Wilson II (19) needed a month to find his footing at Miami. He had one sack through four games, then posted two and a half sacks and 11 pressures at Clemson, the most of any rusher in the country that week, with more power and a clearer rush plan than he showed early. Boubacar Traore (46) has played like a late first-rounder for three weeks: two and a half sacks, a forced fumble, and four hurries at North Carolina, one of which forced the throw Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (6) intercepted. His hand usage and edge-setting against the run are now as good as the traits.
Matayo Uiagalelei (10) has three sacks and an interception and remains Oregon's most disruptive defender. Clev Lubin (34) has a sack in each of the last three games for a Louisville team that has lost three of five. Will Heldt (83) has bounced back from a quiet opener with four sacks, two of them against North Carolina. John Henry Daley (39) leads Michigan with three sacks but picked up a lower-body injury on the final snap of the Iowa loss and his status for Minnesota was unclear. Yhonzae Pierre (44) has cooled after his pick-six opener, with one and a half sacks on the season and no tackles in the win at Mississippi State, and Jordan Ross (40) has been quiet since the Clemson pick-six, with one and a half sacks on the season. Quincy Rhodes Jr. (89) has two sacks for an Arkansas team that has lost 13 straight SEC games, Adam Trick (90) produced a strip-sack and two forced fumbles against Houston, and Anthony Smith (97) has a half-sack in each of Minnesota's last three games, including the upset of Michigan.
Interior Linemen: Echoles Leads, Stone Survives a Scare
Will Echoles (17) was the best player on the field when Ole Miss beat LSU, with two and a half tackles for loss and a half-sack, and he is the interior lineman most boards now have at the top of the position. Then Florida ran for 302 yards on the Rebels and Echoles did not register a stat. Ole Miss ranks near the bottom of the country in tackling, and his grade will depend on whether he can lift the whole front, not just win his own rep.
David Stone (9) had a career-high eight tackles against New Mexico, then dislocated his left knee in practice two days later. Early fears were that his season was over. The MRI found no structural damage, he was cleared in warmups at Georgia and played 29 snaps in the 41-13 loss. He has 14 tackles, two for loss and half a sack, thin production for a top-10 player, but the fact he is on the field at all is the headline. Justin Scott (21) has 11 tackles and no sacks, though his best game came against Central Michigan. A.J. Holmes Jr. (22) made the game-winning stop against Houston and has two and a half sacks for 5-0 Texas Tech but none in the last two weeks. Bear Alexander (76) has been Oregon's highest-graded interior defender, with two sacks including a red-zone takedown at USC, while A'Mauri Washington (41) has 10 tackles and no tackles for loss. Ahmad Moten Sr. (100) forced a fumble at Clemson.
The Skill Positions: Baugh, Becker and Wesco Rise
Jadan Baugh (62) had the best two-week run of any back in the country. He ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns at Auburn and 142 yards and three more on 29 carries in the 52-28 win over Ole Miss, his fifth straight 100-yard game, a run only Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor had managed at Florida. The tempo changes and the lateral cut that leaves defenders squaring up to nothing are top-15 traits at any position. Then Missouri held him to 13 yards on 12 carries in a 45-17 rout. One game behind a beaten offensive line does not undo the month, and at 613 yards and 11 touchdowns he has outgrown a ranking in the 60s.
Charlie Becker (64) is the receiver rising fastest. He went for 127 yards against Western Kentucky, caught seven of 11 targets for 98 yards against Northwestern, and finished with eight catches for 107 yards and two scores at Rutgers. Several evaluators now have him as the second receiver off the board, and he has scored in four of Indiana's five games. Teammate Nick Marsh (77) posted his first 100-yard game in two years with seven catches for 120 at Rutgers. The man he beat in that game, KJ Duff (32), had four catches for 78 yards and saw his touchdown streak end, but at 33 catches, 628 yards and seven scores he has been one of the most productive receivers in the country on a 1-4 team.
Bryant Wesco Jr. (57) produced the best game of his career in the loss to Miami with nine catches for 152 yards, attacking the ball in traffic and moving the chains on third down, the two things he had to prove this year. He is making a first-round case. His teammate T.J. Moore (50) has gone the other way, with 25 catches at 9.4 yards a reception and one touchdown, and he is slipping toward Day 2.
The Texas pair have swapped places. Coleman (24) has 12 catches for 208 yards and four touchdowns, but caught one pass at Tennessee and bruised his tailbone. Ryan Wingo (47) led the Longhorns with six catches for 74 yards in Knoxville and has become Manning's most trusted target, breaking three tackles on one screen. The drops are still on his tape, but the role is growing. Ryan Coleman-Williams (45) has 20 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns, two of them in a 98-yard day against South Carolina, and is getting his groove back. Duce Robinson (35) had six catches for 135 yards and a score at Alabama. Mario Craver (60) caught 11 passes for 119 yards against Kentucky but hurt his ankle at LSU and left the Arkansas game early. Omarion Miller (59) is averaging 9.4 yards a catch, and Braylon Staley (85) has 140 yards all season, both well short of where their grades say they should be. Nyck Harbor (98) has 13 catches for 195 yards in five games and missed a third-down slant on the final drive of the overtime loss to Kentucky.
The running back board has been hit hard. Ahmad Hardy (18) has not played as he recovers from a leg wound suffered in a May shooting, and his coach says he still needs two weeks of full-speed practice before he can return. Kewan Lacy (73) hurt his shoulder against LSU and missed the Florida game, Nate Frazier (31) has five touchdowns but a rib injury limited him to two carries against Vanderbilt, and Mark Fletcher Jr. (38) was carted off at Wake Forest before returning to run for 77 yards and two scores at Clemson. Raleek Brown (81) scored the winning touchdown at Tennessee. Among the tight ends, Trey'Dez Green (20) sprained his knee at Ole Miss and will miss multiple games, Jamari Johnson (43) returned from injury with seven catches for 119 yards at USC, Terrance Carter Jr. (99) caught eight passes and a touchdown at Colorado, and Peter Clarke (80) has seven catches all season.
The Secondary and Linebackers: Injuries Bite Notre Dame
Notre Dame has the No. 1 total defense in the country, and the back end is the reason, but the injuries are piling up. Leonard Moore (7) has allowed six catches for 57 yards on 13 targets all season and had two pass breakups at North Carolina before he was hurt colliding with a tight end on the Tar Heels' last touchdown. He walked off, but the diagnosis has not been released. Safety Tae Johnson (28) has not played since a chest injury in the second quarter of the opener. Viliamu-Asa missed the opener while finishing his ACL recovery but has an interception and looks like the sideline-to-sideline linebacker we graded in the top 10.
Georgia's defense has carried the No. 2 team in the country. Chris Cole (25) had eight tackles, a sack and two fumble recoveries against Oklahoma, scooping one deep in his own territory and running 85 yards for a touchdown. He is getting off blocks, taking cleaner angles and rushing the edge with real bend, and he is playing like a first-rounder. Raylen Wilson (88) leads the Bulldogs with 24 tackles and three sacks, including 11 tackles and a strip of John Mateer against the Sooners. Ellis Robinson IV (14) sealed the Vanderbilt win with a fourth-quarter interception and has given up very little in coverage, and KJ Bolden (8) picked off Oklahoma, though his overall numbers have been quiet for a top-10 player.
LSU lost Dashawn Spears (29) for the season to a knee injury at Ole Miss. Texas has two defenders trending up: Rasheem Biles (67) has two interceptions and posted double-digit tackles and a sack at Tennessee, and safety Jelani McDonald (55) knocked down the final Hail Mary in Knoxville. Xavier Atkins (79) has been one of the most productive linebackers in the SEC, with 37 tackles, seven and a half for loss, three sacks and an interception at Tennessee. Brice Pollock (48) picked off Colorado twice, Kelley Jones (74) broke up four passes in the win over Missouri, Faletau Satuala (82) returned an interception 59 yards in BYU's win at TCU, and Peyton Bowen (61) is Oklahoma's highest-graded defender. Alabama's Zabien Brown (23) has four pass breakups and Bray Hubbard (58) has an interception and a forced fumble for a 5-0 team now sixth in the poll.
The players whose grades are slipping are mostly in this group. Suntarine Perkins (27) has 17 tackles and little impact on the Ole Miss defense. Sammy Brown (52) has 40 tackles but only two for loss, and just one of his seven tackles against Miami was a solo stop. Chris Peal (49) has no interceptions and one pass breakup, and Jyaire Hill (71) has seen Michigan lose two straight since his game-sealing interception of Oklahoma.
Jamari Sharpe (69) missed most of the first two games but is back at boundary corner for Indiana. Ben Roberts (56) has 33 tackles and five for loss and passed 300 career tackles against Houston. Keon Sabb (51) has 13 tackles in a quiet start, Terry Moore (63) is still working his way into Ohio State's rotation after missing last season, and Marcus Neal Jr. (95) has 19 tackles for a Penn State team that has lost to Wisconsin and Northwestern in successive weeks. On the edge, Teitum Tuioti (42) has two tackles for loss after posting 16 last season, which is the biggest production drop of anybody in our top 50 who has stayed healthy.
The Offensive Line: Green and Carter Smith Hold Firm
Cayden Green (13) did not allow a sack or a quarterback hit through four games and posted one of the top pass-blocking grades among FBS tackles, then played all 67 snaps as Missouri ran for 220 yards on Florida. Carter Smith (11) has not given up a pressure or blown a run block in 221 snaps for Indiana. Jordan Seaton (36) was the SEC's offensive lineman of the week after the Clemson opener and graded out well again against McNeese, though the run blocking still comes and goes. Samson Okunlola (68) has moved to left tackle for Miami, did not allow a sack through the first three games, and was the most consistent lineman on the field at Clemson.
Trevor Goosby (30) is back from his knee bruise at left tackle, but the Texas line gave up six sacks and averaged 1.7 yards a carry at Tennessee, and it has to be better against Oklahoma. Lance Heard (66) has been a road grader for a 4-1 Kentucky team that won at Texas A&M and came back from 17 down at South Carolina. Michigan right tackle Andrew Sprague (72) has missed three games with an undisclosed injury, and Jacarrius Peak (75) made his South Carolina debut off the bench after his offseason knee injury, playing 37 snaps against Mississippi State.
PJ Williams (26) did not allow a sack or a pressure in SMU's first two games and brings more than 40 career starts across both tackle spots. Shadre Hurst (93) followed Willie Fritz to Houston, which is 4-1 and ranked 22nd. Iowa's Trevor Lauck (54) and Kade Pieper (91) helped the Hawkeyes win in Ann Arbor for the first time since 2010 before Ohio State pulled away from them on Saturday.
What Comes Next
Week 6 brings Texas and Oklahoma in Dallas, Georgia against Alabama, and UCLA at Oregon, and each one carries a top-10 decision on our board. Manning needs a clean game behind a line that just gave up six sacks. Stone gets a full week on his knee before facing the Longhorns. Bolden, Robinson and Cole get their first look at an Alabama attack that put 56 points on Mississippi State, and Oregon will tell us whether Moore is cleared. Beyond that, Stewart's reinstatement and Moore's injury report are the two pieces of news that could move the top 15 before a snap is played. Smith will keep doing what Smith does. Everybody else is still auditioning.
